Like I kept seeing bets raising on when will USA strike Iran and till 2 days before the strike most of the money was betting on 15 March for the first strike.

When the whole thing failed I was confused about the reason no one reported on this.

A lot of people lost money on this.

But more importantly, this counter the message that is currently being broadcasted everywhere and reported on by several news outlets, which is prediction markets are accurate for predicting events.

I think if there was more reports about prediction markets fails even news organisations themselves will be cautious and will not use the unreliable prediction markets data.

So, why is no one reporting on that?

  • zxqwas@lemmy.world
    2·
    19 days ago

    1. Not sure why it would be newsworthy. It’s unreliable data but it’s still data. What data should they use instead?

    2. As soon as the prediction market is accurate at predicting war you get an advantage for attacking when the prediction market says you’re not (because your enemy will be looking too. )