Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain
Feb 18, 2026
A former senior U.S. intelligence official who is an informal advisor to the Trump administration on Middle East policy told Drop Site that, based on his discussions with current officials, he assesses an 80-90% likelihood of U.S. strikes within weeks.
Iran realizes that it is facing an unprecedented threat from the U.S. if a deal that conforms with Trump’s terms is not reached, former Pentagon official Jasmine El-Gamal told Drop Site. “This is not a dress rehearsal,” she said. “This is it. This is not the negotiations of last year or the year before or the year before that. They’re backed into a corner. There’s no off ramp.”
Welp this is going to be Afghanistan on steroids and cocaine.
Endangering US soldiers and murdering people to distract the public from the Epstein Files. The pedo loser will give himself the Medal of Honor after the bombing campaign,
This is a problematic framing. While Trump personally may want to distract from the Epstein files, the media itself is doing a great job burying them without him by frothing at the mouth about that news anchor lady’s mother getting kidnapped and doing wall to wall breathless coverage on that while talking zero about the Epstein files.
Also Lindsey Graham and other neo-cons including John Bolton have wanted to regime change Iran since at least the beginning of the George W. Bush administration and constantly inveighed for it. Rubio is very much of that faction and the US interests are broadly served by seizing control of global oil supply. They already took out the head of Venezuela and subordinated control of their oil to the US. They need only take out Iran and having already gotten Europe to not use Russian oil they’ll control oil flows globally in a way that lets them inflict pain on China (even with Russia stepping in to supply China some oil it’s not enough for its needs).
This is part of a grand geo-political strategy of maintaining hegemony that has little to do with Trump. Nancy Pelosi, has applauded applying pain to the Iranian people to try and get them to overthrow their government. It is in the interests of the US and the zionist entity known as “israel” to destroy Iran’s current government even without the oil due to their presence as a regional power not on the US/“israel” side (the oil just makes it more appealing and serves even more objectives).
I heard the US’s new legion of peace settled on a headquarters
Its not a legion but a “Bored of Peace”
both the epstein files and gaza shows how cartoonishly evil the ruling class is; so this tracks. lol
Can’t have elections during a war. Or some bullshit according to diddlin Donnie.
that’s just a ukranian thing. lol
That’s a “active hostile invasion on our soil makes organised civil processes impossible” thing, if anything. How the hell are the people in occupied territory gonna queue up to vote? How would you validate and count the ballots? How would the displaced refugees receive and submit their ballots?
The whole thing would be so ripe with opportunities for interference that you couldn’t trust the results. Why hold it?
But also, Parliament votes every 90 days to confirm that martial law still applies, so it’s not like President Zelenskyy is just doing so on his own whims.
I hope that Iran sinks a carrier. The Trump Regime should have egg on their face, and be forced to keep their grasping hands from touching people.
That would mean an actual declared war, which would bring Russia and China in.
That would be the usa responsability for starting the war
Iran already got bombed to hell and back some months ago, maybe this is the time for action? The question is: would the rest of the West go along, once more, with the Burgers or will they abstain?
The question is: would the rest of the West go along, once more, with the Burgers or will they abstain?
it sounds like you didn’t hear about the standing ovation european leaders gave to marco rubio’s call to re-invigorate colonialism in munick the day before last
I didn’t, thanks for the info. 😔
the way he describes the global leftist moves as “godless communists” makes it worth watching the speech yourself. lol
I can’t believe that’s still a relevant and convincing thing to say, wtf. Maybe for American audiences (and that might be all they’re aiming at, just local support/spin, TBF), cause atheism in Europe is not shunned (and they still have more moral grounding than many “God-fearing” Americans who actually just worship either money or power 🤷).
the entire speech is filled with really old things like that and i wish more people would see the standing ovation to understand that all of the western ruling classes want epstein illuminati levels of control.
russia’s tied up with ukraine and venezuela proves that china won’t do anything.
That would mean likely the US nuking Iran in a fit of rage while the TV propaganda plays images of the sinking ship and wails and gnashes its teeth and demands action then applauds or falls solemnly silent when it happens. The media will simply say “well maybe it wasn’t right BUT they did sink our carrier, they shouldn’t have done that and we wouldn’t have done this, you know how we are”. And that will be that.
Russia is as someone else noted tied up in Ukraine and doesn’t want to escalate with the guy (Trump) who can force Ukraine to sign a treaty or agreement with them. Getting into a hot war with the US would be a nightmarish strain on their military and bring them and US very close to nuclear war. Russia will resent losing its Iranian partners to the US but it won’t end the world or Russia in order to attempt to stop it. China is uninterested in getting drawn into a war at all, much less that far from its shores where they don’t have the advantage in logistics compared to the US and would be at an awful disadvantage. China’s navy is not a deep blue water fleet like the US, their navy is structured around coastal defense in the South China Sea and it and their air force lack the range to engage in anything protracted with the US.
Iran isn’t Iraq. This will be a major war with a technologically advanced military. Eventually, there will be a draft. Unfortunately, they’re probably smart enough to do it by Zip code, meaning it will be another Vietnam: a war of the poor and the not-white.
Eventually, there will be a draft. Unfortunately, they’re probably smart enough to do it by Zip code, meaning it will be another Vietnam: a war of the poor and the not-white.
epstein’s effective lottery wins and the fact that such a large number of lottery winners had ties to the government proves that they’re capable of doing this.
Every American who called Russians orcs better be getting ready to fully embrace that label.
seriously. they don’t get half the shit they deserve.
The American invaders versus the Persian defenders. A full scale bombardment.
what’s new after iraq?
They just need to channel the power of ahura mazda and send in the Immortal regiment.
Iran is such a beautiful country. I’ve watched people motorcycle and bicycle through it on YouTube and the people are so kind and warm. It’s really upsetting the way America wields it’s might.
Trump is finally about to become presidential.
Also getting his Nobel peace prize aaaany minute now.
lol didn’t Machado already give him hers in hopes of being crowned queen of Venezuela
trump immediately makes fun of her too. i still have second hand embarrassment for that one.
Idk what else she expected. For Trump it’s immediate or nothing. She didn’t say it on podium so anything else doesn’t matter
🤣
Wdym, he’s already doing the civilian bombing and random country attacks.
Does he really need a war to get full presidential when already the embodiment of what’s wrong with America?
A full-scale, unprovoked invasion of Iran is the only thing that will make Trump a real president in the eyes of the Democrats.
Idk, I think that hinges on him letting them vote to allow it first. If he doesn’t let them vote yes they’ll be upset. Just like trumps other attacks that didn’t tell them beforehand
That’s true, they are sticklers for procedure.
And so many are excited at the thought of getting to approve attacking or bombing Iran 😭
Maybe, but they’re also aware of that now.
It would cost the CIA couch change to bet 300-400k every weekend that Trump is going to attack just to get the Iranians in a panicked frenzy only for it to not happen. If it prevents even a single US fighter from being shot down by wearing them down with false alarms it would be worth it to place and lose bets like that every weekend for a year on end.
So maybe, but also the US could rig that for nothing, they wouldn’t notice it or need to pass a bill to afford it.
I was just gonna say to look out for those suspicious anonymous 300k+ bets from high rollers
pizza index is really quiet right now, but the AFB i live by is tense. my money says next week.
I know this is naive but is there ZERO international efforts to stop this blatant terrorism?
Russia and China have been sending military aid to Iran. China has also cut the US off from rare earths supplies which is affecting American military production. Clearly that hasn’t been a sufficient deterrent though.
And there’s really nothing that can be done in terms of international law because the US simply ignores it.
Obviously neither Russia nor China want to have a direct military confrontation with the US either. That would be WW3, and likely lead to a nuclear holocaust.
So, it seems like a war on Iran is unavoidable at this point.
With a dictatorship of the bourgeoisie why is Russia being so nice?
They’re not nice. They wanted to be part of the western club since the fall of USSR, but the west chose to have an antagonistic relationship instead which pushed Russia towards the Global South, because it’s the only option they had. Iran is important to both Russia and China geographically since it creates a route to Middle East and Africa, and it acts as the key force to contain US and Israeli influence in the region.
because it is in their interest, nice has nothing to do with it
China has also cut the US off from rare earths supplies which is affecting American military
I thought they capitulated in this, no?
It sounds like its incumbent on american citizens, then
Nope, they never lifted restrictions on that.
Good. I hope they never do
Yeah, if China stops supplying rare earths, that’s really going to cripple US military production capacity going forward.
I guess that also explains the recent american involvement in Africa too
Europe outsourced their militarism to the US for 40-60 years.
Who would stop this? As in, who has the forces to do so?
Ugh, its so true. But like, what about the UN ( i know, i know). What about congress? (Again). Where is anything?
But like, what about the UN ( i know, i know).
Well, I mean, do you? You’re asking about a body created by and hosted in the US and funded also largely by the US. It’s toothless and useless because nobody has ever done anything substantial to legitimize it except the US and now that the US has decided that unilateral fascism is the easy path, what exactly does anyone expect?
It’s like a microcosm of the sum of Europe’s problems rn, tbh.
But surely there are economic sanctions or SOME even milqtoast consequences that can get ball rolling
Im aware how reckless the un is but those sorts of rebukes on the international stage DO make a difference
I dunno what planet you’ve been on, but the international efforts for the last few major wars have been very little but finger wagging.
I totally know that but like … notning? Really? UN? NATO? WEF? Anybody?
Europe is will be joining the US, not confronting them lmao. Really the only way to fight the american global military dictatorship is for the global south to militarize and unite against them but we are decades removed from that.
Like we just saw Narco rubio giving a hitlerian speech in germany and European leaders all clapped.
I think americans need to step up first, tbh.
Narco rubio
Was it bad? Should I go watch it?
Everyone should watch it.
It is an open statement that neocolonialism is over (through finance), and a call to arms to Europe that old colonialism is back on the menu (through guns). And as usual, european leaders give a standing ovation.
No fucking way… let me go watch this shit
Get ready for a disgusting amount of white supemacism and whitewashing of crimes against humanity.
It used to be the USSR but that era is long gone and the US filled the void.
Not even China wants to go down that route.
Iran also failed to properly maintain and upgrade their military since the end of the war with Iraq. They have an internal political issue which is why they have the IRGC, which is a completely separate entity from the national military.
It was in the supreme leader’s interest to keep the main military weak to ensure he couldn’t be couped, but now that has left them extremely exposed.
Didnt know that. Makes sense. Do you think he could rally a defense force?
Eh, it’s Iran. Most of the world hates them, so good luck gathering support.
Most of the woeld hate your country
Most of the world hates them
Just most of the white world
Just most of the white world
after being the cause of the reasons they currently hate Iran
Hell awaits.
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Willing? Do you mean: doing all the harm?
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usa is going to intervene by bombing civilians and killing people who have nothing to do with anything, like they always do.
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do you want me to post wikileaks pictures here?
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Im not advocating for that regime. Thats a separate issue.
However, the usa abd pissrael goaded Iran into a much more severe reaction. Do you remember when pissrael said they had agents inciting insurrection amongst the protesters?
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I think countries should bomb the USA as they have ice concentration camps. And while they do so I hope that the civilian deaths arr people like you
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Again, this is not me advocating for the regime. However, as an anti-imperiliast, I can hope that the people of Iran make changes to their government on their own, without 2000 lb palestinian child murder bombs from the usa
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So just clarify, Russia, which we were all promised would drop a nuke on Ukraine, still hasn’t (and won’t, let’s be real; this is Russia, not America), while America is most likely about to conduct their second (third if you count Hiroshima and Nagasaki as separate incidents) nuclear attack?
And you just know the news is gonna whitewash this
I don’t think even Yanks are dumb enough to use nukes over this, what would be the point?
The point would be to let the world know just how unhinged the Burger Reich is and that they’re willing to end humanity if they don’t get what they want.
Nobody is planning a nuclear attack. Name your sources or stop spreading fear and disinformation.
I don’t have a link for it, but so far the only source for the nuke rumors I’ve seen is a 4chan post claiming that Israel is going to use tac nukes to disable missile bases and possibly get a leadership bunker in Tehran. The post is worded to suggest that the poster is someone inside some aspect of the operation or military buildup which I suppose is getting people to take it more seriously, but it’s an anonymous source on 4chan, so not something credible.
Is the likelihood of an invasion based on something Iran is doing? Or is it dependent on how horrifying the next Epstein file drop will be? I mean…I know the fucking answer to this already. Doesn’t make it any less infuriating. This piece of shit will start World War III, all to distract everyone from the fact that he raped children. “No new wars.”
It is about controlling the straight of hormuz for the usa and to crush any resistance to the greater israel plan for Israel
What a dogshit liberal take, it’s primarily about keeping America the top dog through imperialism. Not saying the Epstein controversy has nothing all to do with this but Trump would still be doing similar warmongering even if the files had not been so damning to him and his circle.
lets be real here, americans dont give a shit about epstein files. the info of the epstein class has been revealed that they eat and rape children and traffic them globally. i get that, if that is something theyre willing to release/leak, what theyre not showing the public must be at least 10x worse, but the americans basically havent done shit since finding out that almost every conspiracy is real lol. i think this is just a contention of usa to have full control over the world. i mean i dont know what to tell you when the opposition party is for going to war with iran, dems and reps align 99% on foreign policy. i just hope that iran wins this and survives to see another day.
Its never been about anything Iran is doing. They have never had a nuclear weapons program.
idk if they had or have nuclear weapons, but honestly they should get them asap. north korea hasnt been invaded only because they have nukes.
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They weren’t, weapons grade is 90, 60 is what is permitted by the NPT agreement, which is what they were enriching to.
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That resolution refers to the requirements set by the 2019 agreement after the Trump unilaterally tore up the previous, multilateral agreement. America does not get to dictate what other states are allowed to do.
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I started trying to help cite what the actual amount of enrichment that is allowed, and based upon what I read it would seem that the enrichment amount is unimportant, the only requirement is that is must be used for “peaceful purposes”, this can be found in Article III section 3, and by extension article IV, treaty Article 3.3
The safeguards required by this Article shall be implemented in a manner designed to comply with Article IV of this Treaty, and to avoid hampering the economic or technological development of the Parties or international co-operation in the field of peaceful nuclear activities, including the international exchange of nuclear material and equipment for the processing, use or production of nuclear material for peaceful purposes in accordance with the provisions of this Article and the principle of safeguarding set forth in the Preamble of the Treaty.
Article 4
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Nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination and in conformity with Articles I and II of this Treaty.
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All the Parties to the Treaty undertake to facilitate, and have the right to participate in, the fullest possible exchange of equipment, materials and scientific and technological information for the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Parties to the Treaty in a position to do so shall also co-operate in contributing alone or together with other States or international organizations to the further development of the applications of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, especially in the territories of non-nuclear-weapon States Party to the Treaty, with due consideration for the needs of the developing areas of the world.
The percentage may have come from a standpoint of plausible deniability for civilian uses, but based on the treaty itself, enrichment does not mean anything.
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Not that I support this action, but Don’t they have an enrichment facility with centrifuges?
They want nuclear energy, not weapons (though it’s pretty stupid for them, nukes are the only thing stopping US monster)
Just the fact that USA is comfortable attacking them means they don’t have nukes.
They have nuclear power plants that require enriched uranium.
If Iran wanted a nuclear bomb, instead of spending months trying to enrich Uranium beyond what’s required for power and medicine, they could simply chemically separate plutonium out from spent fuel.
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Iran had put their centrifuges in a cascade
That’s how any uranium enrichment works, each centrifuge only enriches the uranium by like .3%. They have a cascade that enriches to 60%, which is what the NPT allows. Weapons grade is 90%.
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60% was chosen as the limit for the NPT because it has non-weapons purpose and cannot be used to create a bomb without a shitton more refinement.
Reuters
Yeah, and Iraq is totally producing weapons of mass destruction
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“Heh, no u” you empire simps are pathetic
I wouldn’t take a Lemmy comment as evidence either way.
It’s over resources since forever.
I really hate how prophetic the movie Wag the Dog was.
Easy to be prophetic, when you are just describing what is already happening.
The ongoing deployment includes the stationing of dozens of aircraft including F‑15 strike fighters, F‑35 stealth fighters, Boeing EA‑18G Growler electronic‑warfare aircraft, and A‑10C ground‑attack aircraft at a military airbase in Jordan—despite the Jordanian government’s recent insistence that its territory would not be used as a base to attack Iran.
Frankly, the Iranian military should have done something about the US vassals first. Idk what, I’m not a general. An attack? Economic pressure? But like seriously, something gotta be done about these collaborating mfs because without them, the US is severely restrained in their fighting strength against Iran.
It’s not even a matter of belligerence, since the zionists are already the aggressors.
Trump will unleash a whole new level of hell upon this world. Just to feed his ego.
The moment Iran sinks an aircraft carrier, Donald will respond with nukes. Assuming that the madman doesn’t start with a nuke.
Just to feed his ego.
It’s actually to secure the hegemony of US empire and monopoly capital
I agree.
I really hope not, but if he does, it will be spectacular self-own as it’s bound to turn the whole middle-east against USA due to the literal fallout.
The whole middle east is already against the US because we keep empiring there, except Israel ofc
there is a 0% chance Iran has the capability to sink a carrier.
I think you are wrong. Iran has a large suite of ballistic missiles. Unless the carriers stay out of the max range of those arms, a carrier will be sunk.
No, Iran lacks the capability of hitting moving targets at that distance. You need real time data for that kind of operation that basically nobody except the US (globally) and maybe China Russia France and GB (locally) have.
During the retaliatory strikes against Israel they missed targets the size of military bases hat long range.
Let’s circle back on this later. I feel like we are simply dealing with completely different facts (Iran landed a hit on Mossad HQ, in the middle of downtown Tel Aviv). Let’s see what happens after Trump bombs Iran. Hoping it never happens!
I also ‘hope’ it doesn’t happen but i assume it will happen tonight once wall-street closes…
I fear Donald’s showmanship will lead to a SotU announcement of an attack on Iran. And all the Dems will clap like seals, as will the Republicans.
I don’t think he would even bother to do that tbh. In his mind he is king and he answers to no one.
Iran is one of about 3 or 4 countries on earth that is both capable and motivated to sink a US carrier. They have one of the most powerful missile forces on earth and will be in the defensive position.
They’ve got a lot of hypersonics that the fleet has no response to
‘hypersonics’ is the ‘ai’ of the defense industry.
As in “so powerful that everyone must research it”
