Thinking about how on poly market of setting up bets on nuclear war, or nuclear exchange. If you think it won’t happen you bet no, but if you yes and win then most likely the venue will get destroyed and you won’t get your payout or money you get will be worthless… Guess that adds another layer of betting. Assuming guarantee money would be worthless it would effectively mean losing.
Despite the inherent parley, seems like the person setting up the bet wanted to get the money of the people that bet on nuclear war happening
If you don’t want it to happen, you bet “yes”. You bet “yes” as hard as you can, so that the only way the insiders can make any money is by betting against the “yes” consensus, and refusing to blow up the world.
It’s a bribe/protection racket with extra steps.
I’m actually wondering how payouts for poly market works I’d assume it would be proportional to how much you bet versus everyone else. Probably whole range.
But that is interesting that you could influence decisions and even bribe with poly markets. If you make another outcome more of a payout then it should motivate someone to make it happen like with the dildo thrown at the wmba
The payouts are established by the participants.
https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/positions-tokens
When someone starts an event, there are initially no shares to be had. You can pay $1 and buy both a “yes” share and a “no” share from Polymarket. This is called “splitting”. You’re splitting your money into shares on both sides of the event. One will payout, the other will not. If you keep both sides, you’ll just break even.
Presumably, you want something more than breaking even. So, you keep the side of the bet that you want, and you offer to sell the other side of that bet.
You could offer your “no” shares for $0.25 each. Someone can give you $25 for them. Now you have 100 “yes” shares that will be worth $100 or $0 in the future, and $25 cash. You could also offer your “yes” shares for $0.80 each. Someone else might buy them from you at that price, giving you $80. You are now out of the market, with a total of $105 back. This is “trading”.
After a hard day of trading back and forth, you find yourself with good positions on both sides of the bet. You have 200 “yes” shares that you paid $80 for, and 100 “no” shares that you also paid $40 for. You can take 100 yes shares and 100 no shares, join them together, and sell them back to Polymarket for $100. This is called “merging”.
Finally, you can wait until the event occurs. Let’s say the outcome was “yes”. Your 100 “yes” shares are now worth $1 each, and can now be traded at that price. This is called “redeeming”.