Obviously this is a crazy idea and noone should do it, but if a prediction market let you bet on what day someone would die, someone could insider trade the market by placing a big bet on the day they go and assassinate them. People could place bets on random days for people they don’t like to push up the value of the winning bets.
Sounds like something that already exists and is happening right now
Does Kalshi and Polymarket not do this already? It’s just an “event tied financial instrument”, so it’s completely legal in the US.
I’d probably put most of my money towards something like this that actually incentivizes us to eat the rich.
I would bet you have to choose the date range and cause of death, and “murdered” is never one of those choices.
Damn, OK, now THIS is a proper shower thought.
If you want to live in the John Wick universe, this is how you make it happen.
No idea how it’s legal but
https://www.dougstanhopescelebritydeathpool.com/Home/TheGame_mode-POINTS
Comedian Doug Stanhope runs a celebrity death prediction betting pool.
He’s got lawyers, so I’m sure it’s all above board.
It’s a bit like putting a price on somebody’s head then buying an assassin with a loan using the expected bounty as collateral.
We need to see the demented financial instruments Wallstreetbets would create with this
That’s how it’s already done, afaik. But cheers for coming up with the idea independently (if you didn’t read it in one of the discussions about Polymarket, of course).
Look into “Assassination Politics” by Jim Bell ;-) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Bell
That is called a “necroporra”. You bet on some famous people dying this year and win money of they do.
There was a guy from the Cypherpunks community who set such a thing up (in the 90s/00s). IIRC, he was jailed after the courts rejected his defence that he was merely running an innocent betting site.
It’s so dumb he was jailed. Like he did nothing wrong
Tell that to the judge
