The U.S. and Iran Can Still Avoid a War | International Crisis Group
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In nearly five decades of mutual antagonism, the U.S. and Iran have never been so close to a major war. Escalation risks make any conflict scenario perilous for all concerned. A narrow path to averting war exists, but time is of the essence.

Both sides may well be posturing. Washington’s muscular deployments could be intended primarily as leverage to wrest maximal concessions out of Tehran at the table rather than as a prelude to war. U.S. military planners must be well aware of how much extensive fighting could cost, not only in terms of danger to U.S. forces and materiel but also in tax dollars. The twelve-day war of June 2025 cost Israel up to $12 billion, while depleting a quarter of the entire U.S. stock of THAAD interceptors – some 150 of them – which are worth $12 million apiece. Even within the military there is apprehension about the impact of sending so many U.S. assets to the Middle East on U.S. preparedness elsewhere.

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Unfortunately, bargaining by bluffing – if indeed that is what either side is trying to do – is intrinsically unstable, particularly when this much weaponry is involved. Measures meant to deter or coerce can just as easily provoke. Ample room exists for miscalculation or potentially even for spoilers to stage false-flag attacks that narrow leaders’ choices by pushing them to respond with force. In such a charged environment, the boundary between managed escalation and uncontrolled war is perilously thin – and often discernible only in hindsight. It is all too easy to imagine the sort of exchanges at sea that transpired in early February, with the U.S. downing an Iranian drone and Iranian forces attempting to seize a U.S. tanker, flaring into a bigger exchange without either side having decided to enter hostilities.

    • Rhaedas@fedia.io
      3·
      3 days ago

      In the administration, true. The military side has some smart people, though, and at some point, this has to break. We might as well make a crown now if it’s yes-men all the way down. They took a damn oath.

      I also get the dilemma of falling on a sword one at a time. It doesn’t do much of anything except lose a career and ruin a life. Much like protesting single-handedly against oppression results in losing a job, while needing that paycheck, and no change from the action.

      But enough pebbles at one time make an avalanche.